Oil moves higher on Middle East tensions, US tariff threat

SINGAPORE: Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fresh calls from Washington for tougher action against Russian oil buyers. However, the broader market outlook kept gains in check.

Brent and WTI see modest rise

By early trade, Brent crude futures were up 35 cents, or 0.53 percent, at $66.74 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 36 cents, or 0.57 percent, to reach $62.99. Both benchmarks had settled 0.6 percent higher in the previous session.

The jump came after Israel said it had targeted Hamas leadership in Doha. Qatar’s prime minister warned the strike risked undermining peace talks between the two sides. Oil prices briefly spiked nearly 2 percent following the news but later eased when Washington assured Doha that such an incident would not be repeated on Qatari soil.

Trump’s tariff demand adds pressure

Adding to the market’s nerves, US President Donald Trump urged European countries to impose 100 percent tariffs on China and India in a bid to squeeze Russia’s oil revenues. Both nations have remained key buyers of Russian crude since the Ukraine war began in 2022, helping Moscow withstand Western sanctions.

Analysts at LSEG said that expanding secondary tariffs to buyers such as China could tighten global supply, a bullish signal for oil prices. Yet they also noted that aggressive moves could fuel inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts as it prepares to decide on interest rates next week.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, pointed out that the limited price reaction shows traders remain cautious. “The modest reaction in crude oil prices to this news, along with scepticism regarding Trump’s claims about ramping up sanctions on Russian oil, leaves crude oil vulnerable to lower prices,” he said.

Weak fundamentals cap gains

Despite the headlines, fundamentals remain under pressure. The US Energy Information Administration has warned of a challenging outlook for crude, citing rising inventories and increased OPEC+ output in the coming months.

Traders are watching closely for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, with expectations of a rate cut that could spur economic activity and boost demand. For now, however, the tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and weak supply-demand dynamics continues to shape the oil market.