Pakistan’s diplomatic tightrope amid Trump’s policy shifts

President Donald Trump’s agenda and the executive orders issued since assuming office last month have rattled the global community. Several countries directly impacted by these policies have already responded, while others are assessing their next steps. Pakistan, with its long and often complicated relationship with the US, has so far avoided direct scrutiny from the unpredictable US leader. However, it is unlikely to remain immune to the ongoing policy shifts in the world’s most powerful nation.

Trump’s policy shift focused on an ‘America First’ vision, prioritizing domestic interests in trade, immigration, security, and foreign policy. Key measures included: Withdrawal from multilateral deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), renegotiation of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and imposing higher tariffs on imports, especially targeting China, to address trade imbalances. To expel illegal immigrants and impose travel bans on citizens of certain countries. Cut corporate tax rate and deregulate to encourage domestic manufacturing. Withdrawal from Paris Climate Agreement. Reduction in US involvement in multilateral organisations and a tougher stance on financial burden-sharing particularly in NATO. 

Sources in Islamabad revealed that while career diplomats at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are analysing the potential impact of US policy shifts on Pakistan and drafting recommendations for the government to respond effectively, the establishment appears largely unperturbed, treating these recent global developments with a degree of nonchalance.

“The country’s leadership seems deluded and overly confident, drawing misplaced comfort from positive economic indicators and the supportive stance of multilateral and bilateral donors”, remarked an expert. “At the very least, they should acknowledge the gravity of the situation. Strategizing to address the evolving challenges can come later”, he added.

Meanwhile, significant anxiety is reportedly growing within non-government organisations (NGOs), particularly those heavily reliant on financial support from US and UN agencies financially.

Determining the exact number of NGOs in Pakistan receiving direct or indirect US support is difficult due to the fluid nature of funding and the absence of specific current data. Such support varies annually, depending on programme priorities, needs assessments and objectives. According to publicly available data, in Fiscal Year 2022, USAID disbursed approximately $13 million to mitigate health risks for households in Pakistan’s flood-affected regions.    

Dr Manzoor Ahmed, Pakistan’s former permanent representative to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), voiced concern over the challenges to economic diplomacy, particularly given Pakistan’s close relationship with China in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

“Trump is highly unpredictable. Regarding tariffs, I doubt he would target Pakistan as we account for only about 0.3 per cent of their imports. His withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and reduced support for UN agencies is unfortunate, but countries like Pakistan have limited influence in such matters. The growing animosity with China is concerning for Pakistan, but I’m not sure he would push so far as to force countries to take sides”, he remarked responding to a query.

Salman Bashir, a seasoned former foreign secretary who held several key positions, expressed apprehensions and advised a cautious approach for Pakistan. “Pakistan is low on the US priority list, which might actually work in our favour. Our leadership will undoubtedly strive to restore our significance to the US, but Trump’s policies are likely to further dilute multilateralism. Pakistan needs a period of self-healing and renewal. It’s best to avoid getting overly involved in great power issues for now”, he observed.

The impact of President Trump’s policies on Pakistan remains largely speculative, with the country’s ability to navigate these challenges depending on its diplomatic strategy, economic resilience and capacity to forge alternative alliances. Nonetheless, an analyst provided a rundown of potential implications.

“The Trump administration’s policies could potentially pressure Pakistan’s trade terms, possibly impacting textile exports to the US. Aid from the US might also decrease, with tougher conditions attached to whatever support is offered.

“Additionally, new policies may emphasize holding Pakistan accountable for alleged support to militant groups in the region, further straining bilateral relations. Strengthening US-India ties could add to the challenges Pakistan faces in the region. Moreover, growing US animosity towards China could lead to heightened scrutiny of the CPEC and other important bilateral arrangements.

“Trump’s stance on Middle Eastern politics, particularly regarding Saudi Arabia and Iran, could again alter regional dynamics, complicating Pakistan’s efforts to balance its economic diplomacy.

“Stricter US immigration policies may adversely impact Pakistani students and workers, reducing job opportunities and remittance inflows. Additionally, if the narrative around security concerns gains traction in the US, Pakistan could face challenges in managing its image. This could deter potential US investors from viewing Pakistan as a viable investment destination”.

Web Desk