Global oil prices edge down as supply fears ease

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders grew more relaxed about global supplies after a key Russian export point restarted operations earlier than expected.

Brent crude slipped to Rs63.92 a barrel in early trading, while US benchmark WTI eased to Rs59.65. The modest drop followed confirmation that loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk port were back on track. The hub, which handles a sizeable share of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports, had paused shipments for two days after a Ukrainian drone and missile strike.

Industry data showed that activity resumed on Sunday, easing worries that the disruption would linger. The brief stoppage had pushed crude prices higher at the end of last week as markets reacted to the loss of supplies from Novorossiysk and the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Together the two facilities move about 2.2 million barrels a day, making them important players in the global energy flow.

With operations normalised, attention shifted once again to the broader impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. The US Treasury recently noted that penalties imposed on major Russian firms in October have already reduced Moscow’s earnings and are expected to slow exports in the coming months. Analysts at ANZ said Russian barrels are now selling at a noticeable discount compared with global benchmarks.

At the same time, the political backdrop remains fluid. A senior White House official said President Donald Trump is willing to approve new sanctions legislation as long as he keeps the final say over how it is carried out. Trump also signalled that Republicans are drafting a bill aimed at penalising any country that continues to trade with Russia. He hinted that Iran could be added to the list.

Market watchers are also weighing longer term forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to gradually soften through 2026 as a large supply wave keeps global stocks in surplus. Even so, the bank noted that Brent could climb above Rs70 a barrel in 2026 or 2027 if Russian production drops faster than anticipated.