Chinese steel exports likely peak, set to decline sharply by 2026: Goldman Sachs

NEW YORK, UNITED STATES: The blowout in Chinese steel exports has likely peaked, as trade barriers mount and domestic production falls, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Exports climbed last year to a nine-year high of 11 million tonnes, but are forecast to moderate by 3 percent in 2025 before dropping more sharply by a third in 2026, the bank said.

The biggest headwind to sales is the substantial number of ongoing anti-dumping investigations around the world, the bank said.

Chinese output is expected to fall 2 percent this year, and 3 percent next. That would leave production in 2026 at 946 million tonnes, more than 10 percent below its 2020 peak, when the government began to agitate for cuts.

Goldman’s view is that mandated output cuts won’t be necessary this year “as production should naturally move lower as a result of pressures on both domestic demand and steel export channels.”

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Domestic consumption is forecast to fall 2 percent in 2025 to 839 million tonnes, the fifth straight year of decline, with growth in manufactured goods insufficient to offset the continued decline in demand from the property sector, the bank said.

In terms of the impact on global markets, Goldman said China’s outsized share of world production will begin to recede. The risk to that view is that indirect exports of steel contained in appliances and machinery continue to climb, reducing demand for steel in other countries, it said.

Steel rebars futures in Shanghai fell 1.2 percent to 3,000 yuan a tonne, an eight-month low. The benchmark iron ore contract in Singapore dropped 0.8 percent to $97.30 a tonne.